
After the stolen presidential election of 2002 The Commonwealth (a voluntary association of 53 independent sovereign states all of which are former colonies of the United Kingdom, except for Mozambique and the United Kingdom itself) appointed a
troika consisting of Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and John Howard of Australia to resolve the Zimbabwean problem. It failed before it even started as the three presidents never visited Zimbabwe as a group but rather Mbeki and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo visited Zimbabwe and met Mugabe and Tsvangirai separately each visit not lasting longer than 6 hours. While John Howard and Olusegun Obasanjo both were in favour of rebuking Mugabe and demanding free and fair elections as soon as possible, Mbeki advocated negotiations and foisted upon the troika the idea of a South African type of settlement after apartheid, a government of national unity even though the elections had been declared not free and fair by The Commonwealth observer mission. His quiet diplomacy never yielded results as Mugabe refused to negotiate with MDC because we had filed a case challenging the result of the presidential elections. He failed to do or say anything when President Tsvangirai was
arrested not once but twice on trumped up charges of treason. The 2005 Presidential elections came and went past again stolen conducted under unfair and intimidating conditions, Mbeki was still talking to Mugabe. While he was giving him money an emergency loan of ZAR1 Billion which was given to the Zimbabwean government, in the same year the despotic government of Robert Mugabe destroyed homes and livelihoods of more than 2 million people under the guise of an urban clean-up dubbed operation
Murambatsvina. The urban clean-up displaced millions of MDC voters that had been voted MDC throughout the rigged elections. Despite worldwide condemnation Mbeki and the South African government never said a word to criticise Mugabe's regime on Murambatsvina. Even the beating of more than 60 opposition and civic leaders including Morgan Tsvangirai on March 11 was met with silence from Thabo Mbeki. A lot of people are skeptical of Mbeki's chances on the other hand he Mbeki argues this time around his so called mediation will be a success that now he has the
mandate of SADC, another ineffective body of countries with common interests such as is The Commonwealth which also
mandated the same Thabo Mbeki 5 years ago.
Thabo Mbeki's mediation is a ploy that he uses to shield Mugabe from international censure. When George Bush visited South Africa in July of 2003, Mbeki lied that the mediation process was going very smoothly, he said "We are absolutely of one mind about the urgent need to address the political and economic challenges of Zimbabwe." and I am sure that the MDC leadership in Harare should tread carefully before being led on another merry-go-round that characterised Thabo Mbeki's previous efforts. He has on a number of occasions tried to force-feed Zimbabweans into getting into a marriage of convenience with Zanu-PF in the form of a government of national unity so as to preserve Mugabe's status. Just before the dissidents led by Welshman Ncube broke away from the main MDC, Welshman was secretly meeting with Zanu PF officials such as Chinamasa drafting a constitution that even The President, Morgan Tsvangirai had no knowledge of but all with the blessing of Thabo Mbeki.
Thabo Mbeki needs a legacy to be remembered by, the second democratically elected President of South Africa after Mandela. He needed big feet to fill Mandela's shoes. Where Mandela excelled as a world statesman Mbeki's foreign policy still has to do anything of note to leave a lasting impression of Mbeki's tenure other than his denial of AIDS. With such ambitions to leave an equal lasting legacy like that of Mandela he wants to solve the Zimbabwean issue rather quickly without addressing the core problems that are blighting Zimbabwe.Mbeki does not have interests of Zimbabwean people at heart, its not the 6 million that are experiencing food shortages that are compelling him, neither is it the record breaking inflation of 4000 that Mugabe
refuses to officially announce, its his legacy at stake. Also pressing is the issue of World Cup that South Africa is due to host in 2010, if the situation does not change in Zimbabwe then the meltdown will certainly affect South Africa. Mbeki is keen to see political stability to ensure success of hosting the World Cup.
Before anything can be done, before the preliminaries or whatever form Mbeki's mediation is going to take it should be made clear to him that the Presidential elections and if the harmonisation goes ahead then also the Parliamentary elections cannot take place without a people driven constitution. The current field of political play favours Mugabe and there is no way the the MDC will even contest the aforesaid elections without a new constitution. Secondly all political prisoners must be freed, given access to medical attention, the beatings, abductions and arbitrary arrests of MDC members must cease immediately, the militarised youth wing of Zanu Pf must be disbanded then we can sit down and talk about a transitional authority that will take charge before elections that will also allow people like us in the diaspora to vote. If the conditions can no be met then it will be a futile exercise for MDC to partake.